End of 2018 Housing Stats and 2019 Forecasts

2018 was a good year in the U.S. housing market. As it winds down, there are plenty of stats and figures to consider as you prepare for next year.

The more you know about the housing market and upcoming forecast, the better off you'll be headed into next year.

Sales were up in August compared to the rest of the summer, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

This increase came after a summer that saw more sales than the summers before, and the biggest month was August. This is something to keep in mind next year, when you're trying to land listings.

Stress to on-the-fence sellers that these are the best months to sell. Buying a home in the summer is easiest for most families because you don't have to work around school schedules and can take advantage of better weather for moving. 

The housing market continues to grow, despite rising prices in homes and new home construction.

This is supported by a rising domestic economy. Don’t let homeowners tell you it’s a bad time to sell or buy a home. In fact, 2019 might be the best year to buy or sell a home in recent and coming years. The strong economy, boosted by a low unemployment rate and millennials who are starting to buy homes, means next year might be an ideal time to buy or sell.

Millennials, who famously have been renting or living at home are starting to make their first home purchases and will only make more in 2019. Zillow Group CEO Spencer Rascoff says millennials are just skipping starter homes: “They’re renting until their 30s, and that first house they buy is a million dollars. So [young adults] are still buying homes; they’re just buying them later and buying them bigger.”

Millennials take an average of 3.9 months for their home searches. That’s the lowest time period among generations. Nearly a third go over budget, as well.

When you prospect next year, make sure to get these points across to potential sellers. With millennials entering the market, their chances of selling improve. These are the type of statistics that sway homeowners. It proves that the sale may be easier than they expected.

The 2020 election will hurt the housing market, so 2019 is the year to sell or buy, before it hits.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but economists strongly suggest people sell their homes before 2020. Zillow surveyed over 100 economists, and they predicted a recession to start 2020. No homeowner wants to be sitting on the MLS when that hits.

The housing market spurred the last recession, but experts don’t expect that to happen this time. Sell the homeowner on selling before the election. Show them stats in real estate from November 2016 to February 2017. Each election, there is a significant drop in sales and market activity.

Show them reports from economists and warn them about a potential 2020 recession. It may seem like a scare tactic, but it is based in fact.

NAR® forecasts prices will rise by 5 percent compared to 2018.

This is perhaps the most crucial piece of information you can use to prospect to sellers. Prices were 8 percent higher this year than in 2017, and will continue to rise. The NAR® predicts a 5 percent, but Zillow predicts the prices may rise by up to 6.2 percent.

It’s reasonable to predict homeowners could make tens of thousands more if they list and sell in 2019. Go to NAR®’s website to get the exact numbers for the months you're prospecting. Show sellers how much comparable homes sold for in 2018 in their market. Then, show them how much that same home could have sold for this year.

Every seller wants more money. If you take the time to prove that this is the year to sell, they will.

An increase in new home construction should happen in 2019.

This is probably because there aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants to buy them.

The National Association of Home Builders stated: “Over the first four months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 279,302. On a year-over-year basis, this is an 8.4% increase over the April 2017 level of 257,719.”

This is a trend that is predicted to continue. However, these houses aren’t yet ready, so the market will continue to favor sellers.

What does all this mean for you in 2019?

Simply, it means there could and should be a lot of opportunities for you to win more listings. If you want to look like a real estate expert, memorize your statistics and come at sellers with hard facts and figures.  

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avatar_joe Joe Nickelson is a real estate professional dedicated to helping home buyers and sellers achieve their real estate dreams, and helping real estate agents stop using the sometimes-vicious tactics that weigh on their consciences. He believes that the Smart Agents books will, quite literally, change people’s lives for the better. Check out his full bio here

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